2026 Midterm Spending by State

Republicans are outspending Democrats in nearly every top 2026 battleground — a reversal of the last three cycles. Democrats held 53–54% of battleground Senate ad spending in 2020, 2022 and 2024; through September 30, 2026, Republicans hold 60%. The money is heavily concentrated: Texas and Ohio alone account for roughly half of all competitive-Senate ad spending. Below is the aired ad spending for each of the 40 states with tracked Senate, governor and House races, sorted from highest to lowest, with the Democratic–Republican split for each.

—aired Sep 8–27, 2026 across the 40 tracked states below (Senate + governor + House)
—Republican share of that window’s spending (Democratic share is the remainder)
—states, of the 40 tracked, where Republicans outspent Democrats in the window
$935M+aired in the nine battleground Senate races through Sep 30 — Republicans 60% (~$561M) vs Democrats 40% (~$374M)

Where the money is concentrated

Aired ad spending by party for the 15 highest-spending states, September 8–27, 2026. Democrats extend left, Republicans right; the scale is the same on both sides, in millions of dollars.

Democratic-aligned Republican-aligned

Source: Wesleyan Media Project analysis of AdImpact data (release of Oct 1, 2026), Senate + gubernatorial + House general-election ads. Full figures for all states are in the table below.

State by state, highest to lowest

Aired advertising, September 8–27, 2026, Senate + governor + House races combined. The party split applies the Wesleyan Media Project’s published pro-Democratic share for each race to that race’s total, so rows may not sum exactly. Click a column heading to re-sort; tap “Gap” to rank by how lopsided a state is.

Aired ads · Sep 8–27, 2026 · Wesleyan Media Project / AdImpact
# State Dem $M Rep $M Total $M Split Gap Leader
South Dakota, Oklahoma, Wyoming and Idaho each recorded roughly $0.0M in tracked spending for this window and are omitted from the ranking; Delaware, Indiana, Missouri, North Dakota, Utah and West Virginia do not appear in the source’s tables at all. Nebraska’s Senate total includes spending on behalf of an independent candidate that the pro-Democratic share does not allocate to either party, so its Republican gap is overstated by an unknown amount. Source: Wesleyan Media Project, “Dems Lag in Senate Ad Spending” (Oct 1, 2026), Tables 1–3, using AdImpact data — mediaproject.wesleyan.edu/releases-100126.

Fresher cuts: Senate battlegrounds and money still to come

Two later AdImpact snapshots sit on top of the table above: Senate-race ads aired through September 30, and ad time already reserved for the final stretch. Reservations are bookings, not spending — they can be canceled or moved.

Senate battlegrounds, aired through Sep 30

Nine Cook-rated battleground Senate races; $935M+ aired, Republicans 60% / Democrats 40%, Republicans ahead in 8 of 9 races. AdImpact, published Oct 1, 2026.

StateTotalRepDemGap
Texas est.~$239M~$150M~$89MR +$61M
Ohio~$200M~$120.5M~$79.5MR +$41M
Maine~$110M~$68.5M~$41.5MR +$27M
Iowa~$75M~$46M~$29MR +$17M
North Carolina~$82Msplit not publishedR lead <$12M
Michigantotal not publishedR +$15M
Alaskatotal not publishedR +$12M
Georgia~$79Mnot one of AdImpact’s nine; Democrats led the Sep 8–27 all-race window’s Senate ads
Kansas / New Hampshirein the nine-race total; per-state splits not published. One of the nine races was Democratic-led through Sep 30 — AdImpact did not name it.

Texas total is derived: AdImpact reports Ohio + Texas = 47% of the $935M; with Ohio at ~$200M, Texas is ~$239M, split using its published $61M gap. Treat Texas figures as estimates. Sources: AdImpact blog (Oct 1, 2026); state totals via Fox49 / TNND.

Reserved for the final 34 days (not yet aired)

$513M booked as of early October, 61% Republican (~$313M R vs ~$200M D); 83% comes from issue groups ($272M R / $155M D). AdImpact via Insideradio, ~Oct 7, 2026.

Ohio
$137.5M
North Carolina
$66.6M
Michigan
$60.9M
Iowa
$59.1M
Maine
$57.1M

Ohio holds the most future reservations, with a Republican edge of $32M; Texas has the largest partisan gap in reservations (Republicans +80%). An earlier Bloomberg snapshot of toss-up reservations had Maine at R $37M vs D $24M and Texas at R $59M vs D $4M. Source: Insideradio (AdImpact).

The eight states driving the cycle

Who is outspending whom in the states that matter most, combining the September 8–27 window with the aired-through-September-30 Senate figures.

1. Texas

REPUBLICANS

Republicans outspent Democrats roughly 3.5-to-1 in the Sep 8–27 window ($120.4M vs $34.6M) and lead aired Senate spending by $61M through Sep 30. Future Senate reservations: R $59M vs D $4M. Republican outside groups (Senate Leadership Fund / Texas PAC, MAGA Inc) account for about 98% of pro-Paxton advertising.

2. Ohio

REPUBLICANS

Republicans led the window by $34.8M and aired Senate spending by $41M through Sep 30 (~$200M total, the most expensive Senate race). Ohio also holds the most future reservations, $137.5M. Democratic money is candidate-led (Sherrod Brown, $41M); Republican money is group-led.

3. Michigan

REPUBLICANS, MODESTLY

Republicans led the all-race window by $12.2M and the Senate race by $15M through Sep 30. One exception: Democrats lead Michigan’s gubernatorial ad spending, 56% pro-Democratic.

4. Iowa

REPUBLICANS

Republicans led the window by $8.3M and aired Senate spending by $17M through Sep 30 (~$75M total). Iowa’s three House races add roughly another $20M, approximately evenly split.

5. Georgia

REPUBLICANS OVERALL

A split state: Senate ads favored Democrats 62–63% in both September windows, with Jon Ossoff outspending his challengers, but the governor’s race is about 90% pro-Republican (behind Brian Jackson), giving Republicans the combined edge.

6. Maine

REPUBLICANS

Republicans led the window by $3.3M and aired Senate spending by $27M through Sep 30 (~$110M total — about $419 per adult resident, the highest per-capita rate in the nation per KPI). Roughly 76–79% of Maine Senate ads are group-sponsored, mostly pro-Collins. Future reservations: R $37M vs D $24M.

7. North Carolina

REPUBLICANS, NARROWLY

Republicans led the window by $3.8M and hold a lead under $12M in ~$82M of aired Senate spending through Sep 30. Both parties recently paused October reservations here — the Senate Leadership Fund is shifting funds to Kansas — as Roy Cooper leads in polling.

8. Alaska

REPUBLICANS

Republicans led the all-race window by $8.1M and aired Senate spending by $12M through Sep 30.

Democratic-led states of note in the window: Pennsylvania (governor’s race ~100% pro-Democratic), Arizona (governor 82% pro-Democratic), Virginia (House-heavy), California, Oregon, New Mexico, Illinois and South Carolina (Senate).

Fundraising and outside money — a different ledger

The figures above are tracked advertising. FEC-based numbers measure something else — cash raised and held by candidates, party committees and super PACs — and are kept separate here. Q3 FEC reports were due October 15, 2026, and OpenSecrets’ state-by-state aggregates had not been refreshed as of October 14, so no current FEC spending breakdown by state exists yet.

$125.6M vs $16.9MCash on hand, RNC vs DNC (the DNC also carries $17.6M in debt). Across the three national committees: Republicans $233.4M vs Democrats $130.4M.CNBC via Al Jazeera, ~Oct 2, 2026
$354M / $217M+Senate Leadership Fund (Republican super PAC) announced total spending vs WinSenate (Democratic super PAC) spent or reserved on midterm ads as of Sep 24.Washington Examiner ~Sep 27; FactCheck.org / AdImpact, Sep 2026
$263MCrypto-industry war chest for the cycle, including $141M at Fairshake.Research report, Oct 14, 2026
$72MRaised cumulatively by James Talarico (D, Texas Senate) since Jan 1, 2025 — including $27M in Q1 and $30M in Q2 2026.AP via Newsmax, Oct 6, 2026; wsnext
$18M+Raised by Ken Paxton (R, Texas Senate) in Q3 2026 alone, from 160,000+ donors — the largest Republican Senate quarter of the cycle.AP via Newsmax, Oct 6, 2026
≥$1BEstimated dark money already spent by end of August 2026 — tracked in ad totals where ads aired, but not attributable by party or donor.New York Times estimate

For scale, two forecasts — projections, not spending: KPI projects $10.35B in total 2026 cycle ad spending (largest states: Michigan $980M, California $900M, Georgia $840M, Ohio $775M), and AdImpact projected $11.6B in June 2026. Sources: thedesk.net (KPI forecast); Reuters, Jun 11, 2026.

Read this before citing the numbers

Caveats that travel with every figure on this page

  • Aired vs reserved. The state table is ads that already ran. The $513M in future reservations is booked, not spent, and can shift — the Senate Leadership Fund has already paused its North Carolina October ads.
  • Dollars are not airtime. About 87–90% of pro-Republican Senate spending comes from outside groups, which pay higher rates and buy late. In September, Republicans outspent Democrats roughly 2-to-1 on battleground broadcast but earned only about 40% more rating points (CNN / AdImpact, Oct 14, 2026).
  • Scope. State totals cover tracked ads for Senate, governor and House general-election races only. They exclude ballot measures (e.g., California Prop 40, ~$89M reserved), state-legislative races and 2025 races. California’s low rank reflects an already-decided June gubernatorial primary in which ~$250M was spent earlier, mostly by Democrats.
  • Dark money. Ad tracking captures the spending, not always the true funding source; the estimated $1B+ in dark money through August is inside these totals but not attributable by party.
  • Freshness. The freshest complete Democratic-vs-Republican splits run through Sep 27 (Wesleyan) and Sep 30 (AdImpact Senate). No comprehensive state-level D/R ad data for October 1–14 was available at research time.

Open questions the sources don’t answer yet

Sources